Based on morning session... Sifu expected FCPO to rise further 3300. If break above 3300, take profit for open long position ... CBOT Soybean and Corn will rise coz of Banjir di US and hujan lebat menyebabkan harvesting slow. Currently price of FCPO is quiet expensive - Based Trader said...
End Stock for April likely to be more than March. Higher production capping the rise of FCPO.
Open long at lower point with quick take profit... Eye on 3300 for evening session.
Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Friday, 29 April 2011
PROVEN Lagi !!!
Export as sifu expected will rise. Intertek reported export UP UP UP 14%. Demand improved. Now Sifu waiting for SGS export report on late evening. Overnight CBOT SBO,Corn,Crude Oil UP UP UP kaw2 ma... Huiyo..... Late trading on last friday, we can see dip buying interest on higher demand...
Posted by Sifu at 23:08
As Sifu expected, cpo will go down to 3250. By today, it hit to 3240 then turn up to cover gap and closed at higher point 3270. Ini normal and seasonal situation, if gap sangat besar, in near term cpo will cover the gap. This situation always happen before before this.
Evening session, most producer of palm oil expected demand improved and export will be better than last month( March ). Tambah lagi, crude oil become positive in late trading coz of higher consumption in US on weaken USD. Ada lagi, ribut taufan in USA also support the price of Soybean and Corn ( Rival Price ).
By next week, beware of Export report on 30th April ( ITS, SGS ) . If positive as palm oil producer expected, FCPO likely to rise, higher demand. BUT, hati-hati dgn Indon export tax will take effect on May 2011 and higher production on both country.
So, congratulation for those who open short yesterday and take profit by today. Better use spread trading if wanna overnight. Still uncertainty on long holiday. Eye on export report.
Discipline! Minimize loss! Maximize profit! Apa yang penting, Kerjasama.... Happy holiday. Nice Sleep.
Wednesday, 27 April 2011
FCPO still in bearish tone... Upside may be limited due to short covering. From fundamental side, SIFU said negative. Why ??? Indonesia will cut export tax to 17.5% from 22.5% next month(May) . So, buyer will run away to Indonesia coz of lower export tax. Demand is slowly recover BUT Palm Oil production Indonesia and Malaysia rising.
Sifu still maintain on bearish tone in near term. If break 3270 below by today, it is strongly to further decline to 3250. But, beware of CBOT Soybean and Crude oil which is on positive note. Crude oil rise on higher stockpile.Likely to test resistance 3330. Open short at higher point ma!
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